ISIS bigger threat to world economy than Russia

Which is a bigger threat to the global economy: Russia or ISIS?

While the folks in Europe might feel differently, ISIS is a bigger threat to the global economy than the Russians. Frankly, I don't think it is even close.

The reason is pretty simple: no one really wants to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine. The Germans don't; the French don't; the British don't, and the US really doesn't. Where the rubber meets the road, if the Russians really wanted to take over the Ukraine, no one would be able to physically stop them before the Russian flag was flying over Kiev, again.

You don't need to be a military expert to come to this conclusion. All you need is a map. Further, do you think the Poles really want German battle tanks streaming across their country to come to the Ukrainians' rescue? I don't.

Right now, the Europeans and the Russians are playing a chess match to see who saves face. German Chancellor Angela Merkel understands this, even if the U.S. State Department doesn't. Whatever the final negotiations end up being, the West would be wise to avoid getting embroiled in Eastern European affairs.

The endgame here is simple: the Russians want a buffer zone of pro-Moscow, or at least somewhat friendly, governments, between it and Western Europe. Given their history, it is understandable for them to be somewhat paranoid.

But as for ISIS? The endgame here is: it wants a global caliphate, and takes a pretty extreme and literal interpretation of the Koran to determine what to do with folks that feel otherwise. In essence, its aim is the destruction of non-Islamic culture, specifically its strict definition of what it means to be Islamic.

The real problem here is we can't seem to agree on who our allies are in this fight, or even how to conduct the fight. Interestingly enough, U.S. Central Command has announced plans for an Iraqi led offensive this April, or May, to retake the city of Mosul. It has even estimated the number of Iraqi troops that will participate.

To say it is unusual to announce a major offensive, including the number of troops involved, a couple of months ahead of time would be an understatement. It gives a whole new meaning to the question: really?

Do we think ISIS is just going to sit around and wait on it? Or do you think, perhaps, ISIS will have a battle plan ready, as well as a whole host of fresh recruits under arms.

So, what happens if the well-telegraphed offensive fails, and the Iraqi army collapses like it did last year? Leaving behind enormous amounts of U.S. war material and small arms technology? I'll tell you what: Katy bar the door. The Saudis, the UAE, the Egyptians, the Kuwaitis, and Jordanians are going to have a conniption fit, and we won't know who is who and what is what by the time the dust settles.

Basically, the Pentagon can't let this offensive fail. As a result, you can reasonably expect a significantly larger, permanent U.S. military presence in Iraq moving forward. This will require a lot of money and a lot of will. So far, Washington hasn't really shown a strong willingness for either.

That is why ISIS is a bigger threat. It has the ability to more immediately force the rest of the world to do what it doesn't want to do.

John Norris is a Managing Director, and the Head of Wealth Management at Oakworth Capital Bank in Birmingham. He can be reached at john.norris @oakworth capital.com.